Although the military operations initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran may seem like a geographically distant and isolated development for most (if not allof) Africa’s 54 countries, this distance vanishes instantly in today’s tightly interconnected global system. The course of military activity at one end of the world can cross oceans and reach even the most remote shores. We see the most concrete example of this situation in the statement made by the African Union just hours after the aerial operations began on 28 February 2026. When viewed closely, as the ripples of violent conflict began to reach the vast African coasts stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, the vital maritime trade routes, energy corridors, and strategic economic interests connecting the continent to Asian and European markets also faced the scorching effects of this crisis directly.
Due to its geopolitical position situated at the crossroads of maritime routes stretching between the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean, which are considered the lifeblood of world trade Africa is extremely vulnerable economically to any military escalation or security risk in the region. This multidimensional situation, where economic bottlenecks and strategic pressures intertwine, is of a nature that could produce difficult-to-repair consequences for the continent’s general stability, food security, and development goals in the short and medium term.
Looking at the diplomatic dimension of the crisis; following the direct targeting of Iran and the Tehran administration’s harsh retaliation against US and Israeli targets in the region, a distinct divergence of opinion and a diplomatic rift emerged in African capitals. This fragmentation reflects the countries’ own national interest calculations, financial dependencies, and lingering ties from the colonial era.
The African Union expressed great concern over the escalating tension in the early hours of the crisis, calling on all parties to exercise “restraint and dialogue.” It emphasized that the fundamental principles of international law must be upheld. However, this institutional stance quickly lost its impact, fracturing in the face of the member states’ own realpolitik realities and individual foreign policies.
Countries in the Horn of Africa, such as Somaliland, Ethiopia, and Kenya, swiftly condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries and largely chose to ignore the primary role of Washington and Tel Aviv in igniting this crisis. The Berbera base in Somaliland, funded by the United Arab Emirates and shifting the power dynamics in the region, involves strategic promises from Israel to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. In contrast, Pretoria and Dakar adopted a language different from this West centric approach. South Africa openly criticized Washington and its military doctrine, emphasizing that “the concept of preemptive defense has no legitimate place in international law.”
Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko went further, stating that this conflict actually reveals how much the world balance established over the last fifty years and based on Western hegemony is under great threat, and that the system is now coming apart at the seams. Countries like Nigeria and Ghana preferred cautious decisions, sufficing with calls for de-escalation solely to prevent a regional catastrophe.
On the economic front with the expansion of the political and geographical dimensions of the war, Africa found itself facing a classic economic equation, but this time with potentially much heavier consequences. The excessive surge in energy markets, increased logistics costs due to security risks, and disrupted global supply chains are directly affecting the continental economy. The attacks by the US and Israel on Iran have fundamentally shaken the delicate stability in the Strait of Hormuz the breaking point of the global economy, through which approximately %20 %30 of the world’s oil production and trade passes. As a direct result, Brent oil prices showed an increase of between %8 and %13 in a short period.
On the other hand, African countries that are oil importers and meet all their energy needs from abroad faced a much heavier economic burden. In countries like Kenya, Rwanda, and South Africa, this sudden increase in fuel prices is deepening the cost of living for the public by driving up not only transportation but also production costs and, consequently, basic food prices. Furthermore, security risks in maritime trade routes are bringing supply chains to a breaking point. Houthi threats in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and Iran’s potential moves in the Strait of Hormuz have caused global shipping giants to change their routes. The redirection of some giant cargo ships to travel via the Cape of Good Hope extends travel times by weeks, increases fuel consumption, and consequently raises insurance and shipping costs at exorbitant rates.
The humanitarian and social impacts of the crisis; perhaps one of the least predicted but riskiest reflections of the crisis is the possibility of sectarian tension. The ideological effects of the crisis in the Middle East have begun to seep into Africa’s religious and social fabric. Following the death of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei during the military operations, large protest demonstrations were organized by local Shia communities and pro Iranian groups in some African countries. Particularly in Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country, supporters of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, led by Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky, took to the streets in strategic states such as Gombe, Kano, Bauchi, and Kaduna, shouting very harsh anti US and anti Israel slogans and burning the flags of these countries. This mass mobilization has led to a serious state of alarm within the Nigerian central government and security bureaucracy; authorities have warned that these external ideological and religious tensions could disrupt Nigeria’s already sensitive internal balance and fuel sectarian conflicts.
In these critical times of 2026, Africa is by no means outside of this major Middle East-centered crisis, and it does not seem possible for it to remain merely an observer watching from afar. On the contrary, the continent has become a geopolitical battleground in the global power rivalry, due to its geographical location, economic dependencies, and strategic resources. In the coming period, a very difficult, multifaceted, and risky picture lies ahead for African countries and regional organizations. In the face of increasing global geopolitical competition, armed conflicts, and the resurgence of power politics where “might makes right” rather than international law, Africa’s greatest and perhaps only real line of defense will be to overcome its internal political divisions, develop a common capacity for action, deepen regional cooperation, and display collective political solidarity against global crises.
